Summary of “Trump’s Secret to Victory in 2020: Hispanic Voters”

New polls suggest Marist might have been onto something-and that Democrats should be genuinely worried that Hispanic voters could help re-elect Trump and keep the U.S. Senate in Republican control.
If Trump does 12 percentage points better than his 2016 numbers with the growing Hispanic vote, it pretty much takes Florida, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina off the table for Democrats, who would then need to sweep Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to reach the necessary 270 electoral college votes.
At the same time, that 12-point shift would give Trump a clear shot at winning Colorado and Nevada, states where Hispanic voters make up well over 10 percent of the electorate, and where Clinton won by five percentage points or less in 2016.
Whether keeping pace or on the rise, these polls suggest that Hispanics are responding to Trump as president more like Americans as a whole-close to 45 percent of whom approve of Trump-than like African-Americans, whose Trump approval remains around 10 percent.
Still, a definite 27 percent, if accurate, is already essentially equal to the percentage of Hispanic voters who chose Trump in 2016, or Mitt Romney over Barack Obama in 2012, or Republicans in the 2018 congressional midterms.
Remember: pollsters in 2016 thought Trump would get only about 18 percent of the Hispanic vote; he actually got 28 percent.
So why might Trump be suddenly surging with Hispanic voters?
Two-thirds of the Hispanic electorate now is American-born, and they are far more likely to approve of Trump than naturalized immigrants, according to Pew Research Center data.

The orginal article.

Summary of “After Stinging Presidential Loss, Popular Vote Movement Gains Momentum In States”

After Stinging Presidential Loss, Popular Vote Movement Gains Momentum In States Democrats in Colorado and New Mexico are pushing ahead with legislation to pledge their 14 collective electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote – no matter who wins each state.
Democrats in Colorado and New Mexico are pushing ahead with legislation to pledge their 14 collective electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote – no matter who wins each state.
Democrats have been stung by the fact that President Trump’s victory marked the second time in five cycles that a Democrat lost the presidency while winning the popular vote.
Proponents of the national popular vote measures have argued that it’s not political, but Republicans, who have benefited in recent elections from the Electoral College system, disagree.
“Right now, if you live in a state that is not a battleground state, then your vote doesn’t count nearly as much.”
Republican state Sen. Jerry Sonnenberg, who represents the plains east of Denver, worries about the impact of a popular vote on rural America.
Across the country, pollsters have seen a steep drop in Republican support for a popular vote for president since 2016.
Still, he expects a series of lawsuits if enough of the National Popular Vote efforts went into effect.

The orginal article.

Summary of “Here’s What Beto Could Unleash on Trump”

AUSTIN, Texas-With rain hammering outside, Zack Malitz stood in a warehouse space lit by strands of bistro lights and began to reveal the campaign strategy of Beto O’Rourke in exacting detail.
Is the Beto for Senate campaign a blueprint for how a Democrat-including perhaps O’Rourke himself-ought to run nationally in 2020? Or is it a cautionary tale in the limits of mobilization?
The digital director of Sanders’ Texas effort was Malitz, and as Beto O’Rourke’s campaign took shape, Bond suggested to Wysong that he was the right person to translate and update its lessons to a Senate race.
For the duration of the campaign, O’Rourke operated with an unusual two-headed structure: the Austin-based Wysong oversaw field and voter-contact operations, while campaign manager Jody Casey, also a political neophyte, worked in El Paso, handling functions like advance and communications more closely tied to the candidate.
Starting in mid-December, the campaign’s small field staff of seven organizers started calling through its list of supporters, inviting them to come together in person for the first time to watch Beto himself greet them on video livestream.
As it grew, the Beto for Senate field program regularly turned to methods that most campaign tacticians would find aimless.
The Beto for Senate office was tucked into a small room just around the corner from the bar, outfitted with technology provided by the campaign: a slew of Chromebooks, cheap cellphones, a pair of printers.
Malitz wrote down the address of the campaign headquarters in North Austin, and she promised to be there the next morning for a training at 9 a.m. When that hour arrived, Malitz and Sufrin were rallying colleagues for the brief trip to Austin Community College, the early-voting location closest to the campaign headquarters.

The orginal article.

Summary of “The 5 Corners Of The 2020 Democratic Primary”

As a rough guide, Party Loyalists probably represent around 30 percent of the Democratic electorate; in the Illinois Democratic primary in 2016, for example, about 30 percent of voters selected “Experience” or “Electability” as their top candidate quality and voted for Clinton rather than Sanders.
Demographic profile: Going by membership statistics in the Democratic Socialists of America, this is the most male and the whitest of the five Democratic groups, although it’s becoming more diverse, especially among younger voters.
In the Illinois Democratic primary in 2016, for example, 27 percent of voters said that Clinton’s positions were not liberal enough, while 24 percent said the same in Ohio.
Demographic profile: Black voters represented 19 percent of people who voted for Democratic House candidates in 2018, according to the national exit poll – so conveniently enough they’re about one-fifth of the Democratic electorate.
Black voters are poorer and younger than other Democrats on average, and about 60 percent of black voters in Democratic primaries are women.
What they value in a candidate: After sometimes fractious racial politics in the Democratic Party of the 1980s and 1990s, in recent years there’s been an implicit alliance between black voters and the Democratic Party establishment.
The case for doing so: Both groups are made up predominantly of relatively recent waves of immigrants to the U.S. and their descendents; Hispanic and Asian voters tend to be concentrated in the same states as one another; they prioritize similar issues; voters in both groups are younger than average and have historically had low rates of voter registration and turnout; and Hispanics and Asians mostly voted similarly in recent Democratic primaries.
Hispanic voters are around 15 percent of the Democratic primary electorate and Asian voters are around 5 percent, so together, they make up about 20 percent of the vote, or roughly the same share as black voters.

The orginal article.

Summary of “Distrustful, Desperate and Forgotten: A Recipe for Election Fraud”

They’re the reason, he said, he had to be careful with his words when I asked about his county’s new status as the epicenter of election fraud in the United States.
That a small-scale fraud in a rural county of only 35,000 people could have fudged the result of one of the most watched congressional races in the country is a reminder once again of the outside influence of economically-left-behind places like Bladen County, where the poverty rate is 20 percent and the median household income of $32,396 is about half the national median.
Bladen County is a petri dish of rural America’s problems: It has lost about 5 percent of its population in the past seven years, more than any other county in the region.
This is a county that a hundred years ago was the center of a booming agricultural economy but that now has grown accustomed to being forgotten.
“The Bladen Improvement Association does not represent the majority of the black people in Bladen County. The majority of the black people in Bladen County would have nothing to do with something if it was illegal. But they take the poor and the ignorant and lead ’em.”
Melvin does believe the state board of elections needs to “Get off their ass” and investigate all the years of election fraud in Bladen County.
Several people approached me with a mission of their own in mind: They wanted to tell me what’s good about Bladen County.
I wanted to fact-check Pat Melvin’s claim that there were enough absentee ballots in 2010 to turn the election that helped turn the course of elections in Bladen County.

The orginal article.

Summary of “Why is populism suddenly all the rage?”

Populist parties have tripled their vote in Europe over the past 20 years.
Although citizens with strong populist attitudes do not necessarily vote for a populist party, there are various circumstances that increase the likelihood that they will do so.
Such circumstances will enhance the probability that populist attitudes are translated into real populist votes.
Without a certain degree of detachment from traditional mainstream parties, voters are unlikely to actually switch away from them and turn to populists.
Secondly, there is a fertile breeding ground for populists when mainstream left and right parties converge ideologically.
In northern Europe, successful populists are mainly radical rightwing populists.
Parties such as the Danish People’s party, the Finns and the Sweden Democrats all combine a xenophobic nationalist outlook with a populist message.
Leftwing populism is much less widespread in this part of Europe – possibly because the strong economies and generous welfare systems of the Nordic countries make a radical leftwing populist message less pressing.

The orginal article.

Summary of “Last-Minute Tips for Figuring Out Your Ballot and Making”

Many local election boards have an extra voting machine that anyone can come check out before they vote.
For candidates looking to make their first foray into politics, the League of Women Voters has information on local, state and federal candidates and ballot measures.
If your name is not on the precinct register, and a poll worker concludes that you cannot vote by regular ballot, then you should request a provisional ballot.
The Help America Vote Act requires poll workers to offer a provisional ballot to a voter if their name is not listed on the registration list.
Voter turnout can be dampened by voter misinformation and restricted access to the ballot.
The Help America Vote Act requires polling places to have at least one voting machine accessible to people with disabilities – a machine that can mark the ballot for someone who cannot do so, for example, and features large type for people with visual problems.
Most states have laws protecting this right, explaining exactly how the last person in line is distinguished, and poll workers are instructed to allow every person already in line when the polls close to vote.
In 2016, the Electionland coalition went through thousands of tips from a legal call center hotline, as well as thousands of text messages and social media posts from voters like you.

The orginal article.

Summary of “Midterm elections: How politicians know exactly how you’re going to vote”

Thanks to an army of data crunchers who marry that information with data you drop at a clothing or automobile site, many candidates often have intimate knowledge of who you are and whether you’re likely to support them.
Facebook’s data scandal involving consultancy Cambridge Analytica shed light on how companies can take personal information we give away and transform it into highly effective targeted ads.
While you may be aware your data is being used, you might not know the full extent of the process.
So we dug in to find out how data goes from your voter registration form to data brokers and back to you in the form of a political ad.Voter data in America.
The rules differ when it comes to uses of voter data for purposes other than elections.
The Federal Trade Commission, the US government’s consumer watchdog, produced a report on data brokers in 2014 and recommended that Congress require greater transparency from the data industry.
A RoboCent spokesperson told CNET in July that the company partners with data firms NationBuilder, Aristotle and i360 for voter data.
“The very politicians who fight for consumer data are also using it and not responsible for [where] that data goes to after campaigns,” said Kim Alexander, founder and president of California Voter Foundation.

The orginal article.

Summary of “What If Only Men Voted? Only Women? Only Nonwhite Voters?”

What would happen to the electoral map? We’ve conducted this kind of thought experiment before; it can help shed light on why the parties are hoping that certain groups – such as suburban women for Democrats, white working class voters for Republicans – will help them win seats in 2018.
The groups we’re focused on are women, men, nonwhite voters and white voters by education level.
Under these conditions, white college voters would elect a 233-to-202 Democratic majority, which isn’t all that different from where the Lite forecast sat on Wednesday: a 231-to-204 Democratic majority.
While white voters on the whole are Republican-leaning, nonwhite voters are strongly Democratic.
The map suggests that some Southern districts would vote Republican, but again, because voting is so racially polarized in the South, it’s unlikely that these seats would elect a Republican if only nonwhites voted.
The overwhelming Democratic House majority in this scenario makes sense if we look at nonwhite voters as a whole and don’t drill into specific districts.
For all the talk of college-educated white voters boosting Democrats in 2018, nonwhite voters will also be vital to their chances – especially in diverse suburban districts, particularly in the Sun Belt.
If you’re wondering why many Democrats are talking about health care and many Republicans are doubling down on immigration, it’s with an eye toward the types of voters most likely to support them in November – in this case, women for Democrats and whites without a college degree for the GOP..

The orginal article.

Summary of “Midterms 2018: Why Election Day results might be delayed”

Midterms 2018: Why Election Day results might be delayed – Washington Post Skip Navigation Analysis Analysis Interpretation of the news based on evidence, including data, as well as anticipating how events might unfold based on past events.
If you plan to stay awake on election night until you know the outcome of every race – or even until you know who controls the House and Senate – you may need to buy a lot more coffee.
Here are some ways Election Day could turn into Election Week, Election Month or longer.
California ballots postmarked on Election Day have three days to show up at county elections offices.
“It’s like a scene out of ‘M.A.S.H,'” said Doug Chapin, an elections expert at Fors Marsh Group and adjunct professor of election administration at the University of Minnesota.
Later, county election officials review those ballots and resolve the issues.
Not enough provisional ballots are cast to affect the final outcome of most elections, but they can delay results of a very close race.
“All of the skirmishes we’re seeing now have the potential to reemerge or ramp up after Election Day if they seem to have had an impact on the outcome,” Chapin said.

The orginal article.